WTO’s Latest Study - Global Training Center

The World Trade Organization (WTO) has released its latest “Global Trade Outlook and Statistics” report, revealing an unexpected rebound in global trade growth for 2025 but warning of a significant deceleration in 2026. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and tariff-related uncertainties, especially due to the sweeping tariffs introduced by U.S. President Donald Trump, global trade volumes are expected to grow by 2.4% in 2025, a notable upgrade from the earlier forecast of 0.9% made in August.

2025 Trade Growth Driven by AI and Tariff Front-Loading

The report explains that much of the 2025 growth stems from two key factors:

Artificial Intelligence-related goods: Nearly half of global trade growth is attributed to goods linked with AI—semiconductors, servers, telecommunications equipment, and digital value chains—reflecting the accelerating global race in AI innovation. Asia has been the dominant exporter in this space, accounting for almost two-thirds of this growth, with the U.S. contributing about 20%.
Front-Loading Imports Ahead of Tariff Increases: Businesses rushed to import inventory into the U.S. before tariff hikes took effect, spiking trade volumes during the first half of the year. This strategic stockpiling blurred the real-time negative impacts tariffs have on trade flows.

Why the Slowing Outlook for 2026?

While trade has proven more resilient than expected in 2025, the WTO warns of a sharp slowdown ahead: the growth forecast for 2026 has been downgraded to just 0.5%, down from the previous estimate of 1.8%. This is primarily due to:

The full-year impact of elevated tariffs taking hold, resulting in higher costs and reduced trade volumes.
Slowing global economic growth, particularly in developed markets, characterized by declining business confidence, softer job growth, and restrained consumer spending.

The report highlights that the uncertainty caused by trade policy disruptions and retaliatory measures remains a significant downside risk.

Services Trade Also Facing Headwinds

The WTO notes that global services exports are expected to slow from 6.8% growth in 2024 to approximately 4.6% in 2025 and further to 4.4% in 2026. While international services trade is less directly exposed to tariffs, it is indirectly impacted by the deceleration in goods trade and overall economic output.

WTO Director-General’s Perspective

Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala remarked on the mixed outlook, praising the stability provided by the rules-based multilateral trading system but warning against complacency. She emphasized the urgent need for countries to “rethink trade” and collaboratively build a stronger foundation for global prosperity amid ongoing disruptions:

“Trade resilience in 2025 can be attributed significantly to the stability afforded by the rules-based multilateral trading system. However, we cannot afford to be complacent… The current disruptions serve as an urgent call to action for nations to rethink trade and collaboratively build a stronger foundation that fosters greater prosperity for individuals worldwide.”.

Implications for Businesses and Policymakers

Companies should anticipate a more challenging trade environment in 2026, with tariff costs and economic headwinds potentially depressing trade volumes.
Investment in AI and technology-related sectors remains a critical driver of growth and market differentiation.
Policymakers are urged to pursue cooperation and dialogue to reduce trade tensions and mitigate tariff disruptions.
Strengthening multilateral trade rules is crucial to maintaining global trade resilience.