India’s Russian Oil Lifeline Wobbles

India’s imports of Russian crude oil are poised for a sharp drop in January 2026 after Reliance Industries, the country’s largest private refiner and previously its biggest buyer of Russian oil, said it does not expect any Russian cargoes this month. This marks a notable shift in a trade that has been central to India’s energy strategy since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, and comes amid tighter U.S. sanctions on major Russian producers and rising pressure on New Delhi over its purchases.

Reliance steps back, imports slide

Reliance has told suppliers it is not expecting Russian crude deliveries in January 2026, effectively pausing a flow that had made it the single biggest buyer of Russian barrels worldwide.
Analysts estimate India’s total Russian crude imports have already fallen by roughly 300,000 barrels per day since November, to around 1.7 million barrels per day, with most of the decline attributed to reduced Reliance purchases.
State-owned refiners such as Indian Oil Corporation and Bharat Petroleum are still lifting Russian crude from non‑sanctioned entities, but their buying has not fully compensated for the private-sector pullback.

Sanctions and tariff pressure reshape flows

Since late 2025, Washington has tightened sanctions on Russian oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil and doubled certain U.S. tariffs on Indian goods to 50%, explicitly linking the move to India’s continued intake of Russian crude.
These measures have complicated payments, shipping, and insurance for Russian cargoes, raising commercial and compliance risks for Indian refiners, especially large, globally exposed firms like Reliance.
India remains the world’s third‑largest oil importer and has bought an estimated €144 billion–€168 billion worth of Russian crude since February 2022, making it Russia’s second‑biggest oil customer after China.

What a January drop means

Russia’s share of India’s crude basket, which had climbed from under 1% pre‑war to as high as about 40% at its peak, has already slipped below 25% and is likely to fall further if Reliance’s pause continues beyond January.
A sharp month‑on‑month decline would push India’s Russian imports toward multi‑year lows, forcing refiners to rely more on Middle Eastern, U.S., and other suppliers to meet domestic fuel demand.
Even with lower volumes, Russia is still India’s largest single crude supplier for now, underscoring how central discounted Russian barrels have been to India’s energy security and refining margins.

Balancing energy security and diplomacy

New Delhi has defended its purchases as essential for energy security and price stability, while also stepping up imports from the U.S. and other partners and sharing more detailed data on crude sourcing as part of broader trade discussions.
The January slowdown illustrates how sanctions, tariffs, and geopolitical pressure can quickly reshape trade patterns, even when underlying demand for affordable crude in a fast‑growing economy like India remains strong.