[Cindy's Version] Exile ft.the United States

Exile: Is the U.S. Being Traded Around?

In this week’s Cindy’s Version, Cindy Allen, CEO of TradeForce Multiplier, unpacks one of the busiest weeks we’ve seen in international trade—and frames it all through the lens of Taylor Swift’s song “Exile.” From fresh tariff threats to shifting alliances and possible government shutdowns, Cindy explains why it’s starting to feel like the United States is watching global trade move on without us.

What You’ll Learn in This Episode:

New U.S. tariff threats tied to Cuban oil
- Announcement of tariffs on countries that sell or buy oil from Cuba and why this may largely hit usual suspects like Venezuela and Russia.
Trade partners going “around” the U.S.
- How the UK’s outreach to China and Canada’s new deal with China signal a trend of countries pursuing their own economic interests directly with Beijing.
Canada under pressure—again
- Trump’s 100% tariff threat on Canadian goods over the China deal and the newer threat to decertify Canadian-made jets until Gulfstream aircraft are certified in Canada—and why both moves raise legal and practical questions.
Shifting tariff landscapes
- Guatemala and El Salvador trade deals and expected rate ranges.
- Possible hike back to 25% on South Korean goods if their trade deal isn’t approved.
- Potential rollback of the 25% tariff on India tied to Russian oil purchases.
232 duties and a big valuation court fight
- Why CBP centers are informally pushing an “all-in” cost model (materials, labor, manufacturing) for steel, aluminum, and now copper derivatives—and how that conflicts with the 232 declaration language.
- The new Court of International Trade case challenging that interpretation and what it could mean for importers paying 232 on components.
- Why many companies are considering filing protests now to preserve their rights pending the outcome—and why you need to talk to your own counsel.
ACE refunds are coming—ready or not
- Electronic refunds are set to go live February 6.
- What importers need to do with their brokers and 4811 setup, and why brokers must confirm their own information is on file in ACE.
- The big question: what happens to refunds if the setup is incomplete?
EU deal on pause
- Why the EU is putting its U.S. deal “on hold” and how that could trigger a return to higher tariffs if the U.S. responds like it has with South Korea.
Hill updates: express couriers and DHS funding
- A new bill proposal for simplified declarations on express shipments under 600 dollars, and what it could mean if you use or compete with express couriers.
- The looming DHS/CBP funding issue, the likelihood of a shutdown, and what a shutdown typically means for cargo processing versus outreach and meetings.

Why “Exile”?
Cindy connects the week’s news to “Exile,” focusing on the line, “You were my town, now I’m in exile seeing you out.” She explores how U.S. policy is driven by a belief that the country has been taken advantage of and needs to re-shore manufacturing and secure critical sectors, while much of the world sees it as a pullback from free trade and trade facilitation that once underpinned global stability.

By contrasting these two perspectives—like the two voices in the song—Cindy argues the U.S. risks finding itself “in exile” as trade partners build new frameworks around us, and warns that we’ve “seen this film before” in history with outcomes that weren’t ideal.

Key Takeaways:

Expect more volatility in tariffs and trade relationships as the U.S. pushes assertive trade tools and partners seek alternative paths.
Importers dealing with 232 duties on steel, aluminum, and copper inputs should closely watch the new court case and coordinate with counsel on protest strategy.
ACE electronic refunds are an opportunity and a risk—data and 4811 setups must be right to avoid missing money you’re owed.
Even in a shutdown, cargo should keep moving, but engagement with CBP and DHS will be limited.
Strategically, the U.S. may be drifting into a kind of trade “exile”—and it’s critical for companies to understand both the domestic narrative and how the rest of the world is reacting.

——–

Presented by: Global Training Center

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Machine Operated Script:

CINDY ALLEN (00:03.79)
Hello, today is Friday, January 30th, 2026. I’m Cindy Allen, CEO of TradeForce Multiplier, which is a global trade consultancy. We handle high-level strategy matters anywhere from how to determine the proper classification to how to structure your international trade strategy to make sure that you are meeting the compliance deadlines and requirements that we have today.

Welcome to Simply Trade Cindy’s version where I base an international trade update on a Taylor Swift song brought to you in association with Global Training Center. Today’s song is Exile and I’ll get into that in a moment. But first, what’s happened this week in international trade? This has been a really, really busy week. Probably one of the busiest weeks we’ve seen. In the past few days, the administration has announced tariffs on

countries that sell oil or buy oil from Cuba. This was signed on the 29th. It’s supposed to be effective today. We have no details yet. We don’t know what percentage. We don’t know what countries. We do know that this is based on IEPA authorities, so it may be subject to the Supreme Court decision, but we’re looking for that information. Conventional wisdom says that Venezuela, Russia,

are the only two that buy oil from Cuba. So it may be sort of a moot point since we have control of the Russian or of the Venezuelan oil trade. And we don’t really trade much with Russia right now anyway, due to the ongoing war in the Ukraine. So we’ll still look for the details of this as international trade professionals. We saw a report that the UK has visited China to achieve a trade deal.

And this follows Canada actually signing a deal with China. So we are seeing that overall countries are starting to go directly to China around the US and developing trade deals for the betterment of their own economies and for the benefit of the companies that are doing business in the UK. We did see that Trump did threaten to assess 100 percent tariffs on goods from

CINDY ALLEN (02:24.066)
Canada as a result of the China deal, but that seems to have been muted a bit and walked back based on conversations that Trump has had with the Prime Minister of Canada. So that seems to be settling down at the moment. However, that hasn’t completely gone away. There is a new threat today on Canada that the administration has said that they will assess tariffs.

and decertify Canadian-made jets until the Gulfstream jets are certified in Canada. So there are hundreds of flights that are operated today in the US with US-made jets. So it would hurt the US traveling public and also the cargo that travels on those commercial airlines. We have not seen details of this. And there’s been some questions on

the legal path to actually decertify an already certified aircraft that is in use in the United States. Again, we’ll keep an eye on this, more details to come. We will see what effect that has. Hopefully this will just lead to some conversations and that threat will decrease as the others have. We also have Guatemala and El Salvador trade agreements have been announced. We’re looking for details on those to determine what

the percentage will be overall for those trade deals. We’re expecting the same range, 10 to 15, that the other trade deals have achieved going forward. In addition to that, this week, Trump has threatened to raise tariffs on the South Korean products based on the fact that the South Korean government has not yet approved the trade deal. It will go from the 15 % that it is today back to 25%.

which was the announced amount in August. In good news, Secretary of the Senate has indicated that the 25 % tariff on India might be rolled back based on some actions and discussions that have happened between the US and India, and that’s on the Russian oil purchases that India has made. So hopefully that will go forward. Again, no details on that, just news reports moving forward that that’s in progress.

CINDY ALLEN (04:50.668)
We have another legal case to watch. I spoke the last couple of weeks about the issue of determining valuation for steel and aluminum and now copper derivatives that are an input into a finished article coming into the United States. The value at question has been announced by CBP by the Center in an informal manner.

to say that it is all inclusive. So all in costs for manufacturing, for the labor costs, other costs that are usually attributed to the whole article that these steel and aluminum companies need to, or these importers that have steel and aluminum components need to include that in the value of the steel and or aluminum or copper that is subject to the 232 tariffs. There has been a legal challenge now filed

in the Court of International Trade, that’s based on the denial of a protest that happened by a specific company. And the lawsuit centers around the fact that the 232 declaration indicates that only the actual cost of the steel or aluminum need to be included in the 232 duties and not an all-in cost.

So this may have a huge impact on those who are subject to that steel and aluminum derivative cost and take it back, hopefully if this lawsuit is successful, to just the cost of the steel and aluminum, which is hard enough to come by on its own, let alone adding all those calculated entries in. There have been some differing legal opinions on whether if you are paying steel and aluminum derivatives,

that you should file a protest on your entries to preserve the right if that case is found to be settled for the importer. speak again with your legal counsel, get their advice on what your best path is knowing your particular situation. So reach out to those lawyers again.

CINDY ALLEN (07:01.581)
Refunds, electronic refunds are set to go into effect in a week on the 6th. So that’s good news, I think. There have been some hiccups getting the right parties filed in ACE. So if you have not yet done that and you are an importer, speak with your broker on the 4811 and how that’s filed and represented in your ACE portal. If you’re a broker, you should be working with your importers and also ensuring that your own 4811 is on file.

to ensure that you can get those electronic refunds back. No word on if you don’t have that and there’s a refund, what happens to that? That’s always my question. Hopefully that won’t happen. Do your due diligence and get that information out. The EU Trade Commission continues to say that the deal is still on hold with the US and this is based on the recent activities.

and announcements in several forums by the United States, the EU feels that they need to pause and look at this deal a little more closely before they put this through their legislature and approve this for the EU overall. We don’t know what that’s going to mean in terms of tariffs. Will Trump, like the South Korean deal, go back to a higher tariff rate for the EU and set aside that 15 %?

We aren’t sure where this is going, but something else to watch. Two things going on on the Hill today. One is there is an express courier bill that’s been announced for goods that are $600 and under. There is a proposal that express couriers or those operating an express courier facility will have a simplified process to declare those goods. And really this is to

establish a parity with the US Postal Service where they have a flat rate or a flat rate based on the IEPA duties moving forward instead of having to determine the classifications and pay the stacking tariffs, both the regular tariff, IEPA, and any 232 tariffs. It’s not likely to advance in the short term, but I think it’s noteworthy to determine that and look at it. If you are someone who is

CINDY ALLEN (09:22.765)
Using an express courier, you may want to take a look at that. If you’re someone who’s competing with an express courier, you also may want to take a look at that and work within your trade associations to move that legislation forward in a manner that may benefit you and your company. And lastly, on the Hill, DHS and CBP as part of DHS funding isn’t yet secured.

We may be going into a shutdown over the weekend. The funding runs out on the first of February. People are indicating that if we do go on a shutdown, it could be a week or more. One of the reasons is that if a deal isn’t struck today, and it is the afternoon of January 30th as I’m recording this, we don’t have a deal yet. It could be that

If a continuing resolution which funds these agencies at the level that they are currently funded could move forward in the Senate, if that is not agreed to, then what happens is both the House and the Senate have to approve a budget bill moving forward. The House is out, so it’s unlikely that the House representatives could get back to D.C. in time to vote on this bill on Sunday to avert a shutdown.

So it’s looking more and more likely that a shutdown is going to occur. This is basically a discussion about the funding for Immigration and Customs Enforcement, or ICE, based on some of the activities that have been going on in the United States. And that continues to be a very partisan issue and impacting overall DHS funding. If there is a shutdown,

As we’ve seen before, most of CBP will be on the job. We will not see cargo delays. Things will be processed as normal, but extra activities will be curtailed, such as any appearance at any trade associations, any talks. Meetings are usually curtailed in those situations. So we’ll keep an eye on this and we may be in a shutdown as of Monday. That brings me to today’s song and I will tell you I had a hard time.

CINDY ALLEN (11:41.837)
picking a Taylor Swift song, which is really unusual for me. Usually I have the song all picked out based on what I want to talk about. But this song, Exile, is a very sad song, actually. it specifically, the lyrics that really stuck with me is, you were my town, now I’m in exile seeing you out. I think I’ve seen this film before. And really based on all the actions we’ve seen over the past week and really over the past 12 months,

It seems more and more like the US is going to be in exile. It seems like trade partners are establishing trade agreements around the United States. although the US economy and as a market is very desirable for a lot of countries and a lot of companies that trade here.

There has been a wholesale effort. We saw this at the World Trade Organization, the World Customs Organization, and at Davos that the world is starting to trade around us and we are somewhat in a period of exile with those entities. In the song, Taylor and her featured artist on that, Bon Iver, really have a…

they go back and forth. he says, I’ve never learned to read your mind. You never gave a warning sign. And Taylor says she gave so many signs. I couldn’t turn this thing around. You never tried to turn the thing around. So it’s a discussion between two people of their own perspectives of a situation. And I think that’s kind of what’s going on in the United States. The United States has one perspective that we have been taken advantage of.

that we need to reestablish manufacturing, we need to reestablish an investment in the United States and ensure that we have a capacity, especially when you’re talking about critical things like security, issues that are important for defense and making sure that we’re competitive moving forward and the rest of the world has seen this as really a wholesale removal of free trade practices and trade facilitation that

CINDY ALLEN (13:57.456)
stabilized economies around the world and in fact stabilized security from that perspective. We saw the post-World War II really advanced trade as a means to ensure peace and through economic security and that had a really successful run and this has turned it on its head. So I’m feeling a little bit like the United States is in exile.

And I’m worried because we’ve seen this film before and it really hasn’t turned out as well as we had hoped. So hopefully we’ll be here with better news next week and we won’t be on a shutdown. We’ll talk to you then.